Four times a year, companies release quarterly results — events that trigger disproportionate moves, with a specific mechanic in the options market.
Ahead of each release, options prices in an expected move magnitude — the implied move. A large implied move reflects high anticipated uncertainty.
Once results are out and uncertainty resolved, the volatility premium collapses — IV crush. An option bought right before earnings can lose value even if price moves the right way, with the volatility drop offsetting the gain.
Traders compare the actual move to the implied move priced in beforehand. A move meaningfully larger than implied reflects a significant surprise relative to expectations.
Yuka Finance shows the earnings calendar and implied moves live, for free.
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