Two macroeconomic forces silently dominate the underlying direction of markets: the liquidity available in the financial system and the level of interest rates. Understanding these two levers helps place every price move in its real context, beyond the daily noise.
Net liquidity is calculated as follows:
It's the money actually available and circulating in the financial system — one of the strongest correlations with the S&P 500 since 2020. The principle is simple: when liquidity rises, it tends to find its way, at least partly, into stock markets, creating a tailwind. When it contracts, every rally becomes more suspect, since it lacks the structural fuel to continue.
Rates drive the other half of the equation:
Unlike price indicators that react after the fact, liquidity and rates act as background context: they don't tell you when to buy or sell a specific asset, but let you judge whether the overall environment is supportive of or opposed to risk-taking. A stock rally amid contracting liquidity deserves more caution than a rally accompanying balance-sheet expansion.
This data comes from official, free sources: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the US Department of the Treasury, and the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database from the St. Louis Fed.
Yuka Finance shows net liquidity, real rates and the yield curve, updated continuously, for free.
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